Karin von Hippel is co-director of the CSIS Post-Conflict Reconstruction Project and senior fellow with the CSIS International Security Program. Previously, she was a senior research fellow at the Centre for Defense Studies, King’s College London, and spent several years working for the United Nations and the European Union in Somalia and Kosovo. She is currently on the World Economic Forum's Global Agenda Council on Fragile States and has direct experience in over two dozen conflict zones. In 2004, she was part of a small team funded by the U.S. Agency for International Development to investigate the development potential of Somali remittances. In 2002, she advised the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development on the role of development cooperation in discovering the root causes of terrorism. She continues to participate in numerous conferences and working groups on the subject in Africa, Europe, and North America.
Hard-line Islamist Somali fighter guards a checkpoint as a merchant walks his horse across, in southern Mogadishu
Courtesy of Reuters Pictures.
Q: Lets start off with what you think about the election of Somali President Sharif Sheikh Ahmed in Somalia. Does his presidency offer some hope to Somalia?
For the first time in years, I am mildly optimistic about events in Somalia. I haven’t been at all over these past 19 years, since the state collapsed in January 1991. There are a number of ‘ifs’ that could really give Somalia a chance.
The positive thing about President Ahmed is that he is a moderate, or at least considered to be a moderate. Though I’m never quite sure what we mean by being a moderate Muslim. Regardless, Ahmed will get the credit for the Ethiopian departure at the start of 2009. That was a negative rallying point that helped the Al-Shabaab, whose leaders were claiming that they were fighting against the Christian occupying forces. Abdullahi Yusuf has also resigned, and he too was a lightning rod. Another positive development is that Ahmed has already appointed ministers from the Northeast, crossing clan lines. He has also appointed a foreign minister who knows the West very well.
Thus, the early signs are fairly good. But one of the ‘if’s’ I referred to earlier relates to whether or not he can integrate the moderate elements of the Al- Shabaab. Contrary to what most people thing, there are some moderate elements in Al-Shabaab. Some young men in the Al-Shabaab are in it just for the money and some are not fully committed to its ideology. Already, we’ve seen the Al-Shabaab splinter into different groups. If Ahmed can pull in the moderate members and isolate and detain the handful of hard-liners who will not negotiate, then I think we may see the beginning of stability in Somalia. The goal should be to separate the extremists from the moderates and try to form a unified government.
Another ‘if’ he needs to accomplish is to figure out how to work with the Ethiopians. As much as President Ahmed is hesitant to work with Addis Ababa, he needs to do so because Ethiopia can always be a spoiler (and in contrast, could help with much-needed development and security assistance). Ahmed needs to feel comfortable about what is happening next door.
As to America’s role, I think the US government should play a very quiet, behind the scenes role; the UN Secretary-General’s Special Representative needs to continue to play a mediating role.
The US government and the UN Special Representative can also play a critical role in preventing the regional states from playing a spoiler role, as they have often done in the past, as occurred during the Ethiopian-Eritrean war (1998-2000) when both countries interfered in Somalia. Other countries have also played a destabilizing role in Somalia over the past two decades, including Egypt, Kenya, Yemen, Djibouti, and Libya. So we need to get these powers behind the UN-led peace process.
Thus, if Ahmed mobilizes the moderates and isolates the spoilers, he can divide the Al-Shabaab and strengthen the government. The key is that Ahmed needs to immediately start to deliver basic services and security. But the problem is that he does not have any resources. This is where Ethiopia, the UN, and the United States, the European Union and other countries can all help. But any efforts need to include new mechanisms to prevent corruption, potentially utilizing the very vibrant Somali media to monitor all donor spending.
Q: Can you explain exactly what you mean by ways you can ensure that bureaucracy will not arrest efforts to assist Somalia?
When Ashraf Ghani was Afghanistan’s Finance Minister (2002-04), there was an attempt to have public accountability as to where the financial assistance was going. I think future aid packages to Somalia should utilize a much more public accounting approach. The press and Somali watch groups can monitor the financial aid and hold the bureaucracy accountable. Thus, the average Somali would become more involved in making sure that the money goes to where it is supposed to go. And if it isn’t going where it is supposed to go, everybody puts it online and in the newspaper, using the “name and shame” approach. Cell phones and cell phone cameras have been used to monitor aid flows, and there are other innovations in different parts of the world that can be used.
The problem is that while Ahmed will have more support from the public and hopefully the neighboring countries, there are many things that can go wrong. His biggest challenge will be in dealing with the Al-Shabaab and trying to beat them at the battle over Somali hearts and minds. He needs the support of the people to isolate and marginalize them as a movement, and prevent them from spoiling the peace process. The Ethiopians that “occupied” the country are gone, and Yusuf, who was considered a warlord by many and not representing the interest of the Somali people, is gone as well. The only real foreigners in the country now are the foreigners the Al-Shabaab invited in. But Ahmed will need to get the security situation under control so as to rebuild and also end the humanitarian crisis that has engulfed the country.
Q: Speaking of the jihadists brought into Somalia, I think the general big question is whether terrorism is finding a safe haven in Africa, specifically in Somalia. Is Somalia going to be a big counterterrorist target in the future?
There are definitely foreign jihadists in Somalia, but I don’t think that there are as many as people think because, Somalia is a very hard place to operate in. Somali society is very fragmented and power is widely diffused, while infrastructure is not reliable.
There are other jihadists in the trans-Sahel region and there is a concern because of the sheer geographic expanse of the desert. But to put this into perspective, there are also jihadists in Manchester and in London, and in Hamburg and in Marseilles and the FBI is now worried about them in America too. Recently, there have been stories about young Somali men from Minneapolis, who have joined the jihad in Somalia. But I don’t see jihad in Somalia as the biggest threat. We need to use our resources to help Somalia build the security infrastructure that it needs to secure its own borders, and prevent these people from entering in the first place.
